Likelihood of Inter-State War in Southeast Asia

Likelihood of Inter-State War in sou-east AsiaCritic completelyy assess the similarlihood of inter-state state of war in southboundeast Asia in the 21st Century.TAN SEOW LIMINTRODUCTIONSouth East Asia a persona consisting of 11 countries scattered around the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean and carries great variety in cultures, languages and religions with Islam being the dominant 1 in the locality). With around 620 million habitants, it is also considered one and only(a) of the most inhabit divisions in the world. With genuinely rich heritage, it also has its fair sh be of conflicts from the emeritus days to current and thru the years, every nation ar trying to retrace despite some countries with policy-making in constancy, and strengthen its own delivery in order non to be left behind in the matched world. The forming of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is in a way aims to reanimate the economic growth, social progress, socio-cultural evolution amo ng its portions, protection of vicinityal peace and stability, and opportunities for section countries to discuss differences peacefully1 .This essay pull up stakes attempt to discuss the likelihood of inter-state war in the region in the 21st century with consideration of preserve due to global trends, the effect of economic interpendence and terrorism in the region which may pose a bigger threat to national security.THE economical AND POLITICAL ARENA OF SOUTH EAST ASIAThe countries, being in a strategy location and access to plentiful of natural resources in concert with their diversity and increasing integration, are a draw outer for not only china but also for Europe and US to invest in. Politic in solelyy, the region provides stability in a part of the world that is rapidly reshaping the global ratio of power. As a result, its continued developmentwhich depends on investments in alkali and education, as well as improvements in business climateis all told importa nt(predicate) for the rest of the world. The ten countries kick in a combined GDP of $1.9 meg and an average per-capital income close to that of china. Being a consistent well(p) performer, they would subscribe to been a ninth largest prudence if they are a country2. Thanks to the relaxation method of control by the military junta n 2011, Myanmar has also stepwise opened up their market for foreign investment in the then(prenominal) two years. And being an emerging economy with great authorization, it cannot be neglected. The belowdeveloped economies in Vietnam and Cambodia bring in also performed economically well since they open up its market few years back.3ASEAN, who has raceed a pivotal modify role in both the region and the world, has also aim to wee-wee an economic community which is a single market for seriouss, services, investments, and skilled mash by 2015. With its determination and shows of economies usefulness, it has also drawn in partnership with assorted countries like mainland mainland China, South Korea, Japan, Australia, New Zealand and India in introducing various initiatives in boosting the economies in the region. unite States commitment to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) will also determine the economy of the next century for S.E.A.Amidst its developing economic potential, the diplomaticalal arena among the S.E.A. countries poses other challenge which may jeopardizes the progress and worsened, may derail and setback the efforts upchuck in frankincense far. The political tempestuousness in siamese connectionland its all too familiar partisan politics has been playing out in the street wanting to unseat Yingluck Shinawatra, the sister of the controversial and now exiled ex-prime diplomatic minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Only consolation is the military has yet to stage the 82nd coup thus far. The country has been without a proper government since December 13 and the alternative last do in February was conside red void due to the protest causing some areas not able to conduct a proper election. The Thai economy was also badly hit and will deteriorating further if the turmoil continues with no end in sight. And as recent, the opposition has planned to ostracise the July election yet again and called for Yingluck to resign. Myanmar also faces daunting challenges in its way of life to reform. The military juntas refusal to remove clause 59(f) from the constitution, which bars from the judicature anyone whose spouse or children are foreign citizens. This effectively bars take to the woods Suu Kyi from standing for president. While Mr Thein Sein may be supportive of removing the clause, the internal rampart from the military junta has thus far been effective in mental block it. In the words of Mr Thein Sein if the political demands made by the public are larger than the current political outline can accommodate, we can all end up in political deadlock.we could lose all the political fre edom we have achieved so far. I would therefore like to urge all of you to handle such a site with awe and wisdom.4 This deadlock in political reform, a largely inscrutable bureaucracy, will definitely slow down the progress of development in the country. Cambodia, under the rule of authoritarian prime minister Hun Sen, has also seen tens of thousands of protestors going on the street recently to protest against flaw in election system which led to the win by Hun Sens party. With the instability in the political mooring in the country, it is difficult to attract investment in the country. The situation is further stressed by the lack of skilled workers in the country. Indonesian will be having its presidential election this year and will find out the next President to lead this economy into the next century. Being the largest economy in S.E.A and worlds 3rd largest democracy, it will set the raceway and determine the progress in S.E.A. economy.With the colourful economic and po litical situations in the S.E.A, it is unimaginable to think that each and every country in this region would want to risk being in the last of the league in the developing economy. While ASEAN may have a cognize policy of not interfering in internal politics of member states, they have in the past shown to be able to come to some apprehension amicably to settle their inter-state disputes as in the case of Thailand-Cambodia territory disputes which was the worse since the forming of ASEAN in 1967. It would also be disastrous if any country, having dealt with their internal politic turmoil, would want to get into another inter-states conflict instead of banding together to move together boost the regions economy.ECONOMIC mutualness IN SOUTH EAST ASIA scotch interdependence between inter-states has been known to prevent any conflicts or escalation in any conflicts. It is not curb to just South East Asia countries. I am a worshiper in such advocacy. Evident over current quarrels bet ween China and Japan over the islands barren rocks known in China as the Diaoyu islands and in Japanese as the Senkaku islands, the conflict will not rev up mainly due to the continual reliance on the each economy. China is in get hold of of Japanese products like machinery for its production and Japan in need of raw products from China likewise. unconstipated in the tense atmosphere in July 2012, Japanese companies are still doing business in China e.g. a city in Chongqing hiring the Mitsui Group to develop an industrial greens aimed at attracting foreign investment5. The leaders in both countries know very well how a deteriorating economy will damage its standing in the world. Both leaders also has a heavy responsibility to amend their economies and having been relying on each others economy for decades, re-strategizing and reduce or cut off reliance on each other is not an option.In South East Asia, the forming of ASEAN serves to ensure peace in the region by promoting tra ding in the regions as one of its aim. Along the way, member states have also came out with initiatives in propelling the economy in the region in 1992, the integrating of its member economies by the establishment of the ASEAN allow Trade Area (AFTA) and later in 2003, the members further committed to forming an ASEAN Economic Community (AEC), a single production base and market, by 2020. beholding the significant and importance of the AEC, the member states agreed to advance the formation to 2015 in 2007, though the progress is slow down due to political situation in some member countries. All these initiatives require the co-operation of the member states, every one of them, in order to form a surd magnet to attract investment to the region. Thus far, with its strategic location, abundant natural resources, caliber human resources and growing economies, ASEAN has engaged economically, by way of trade and investments, with all the large economies of the world. Even with the re gion facing the Asian financial crisis which bend ASEANs economic credibility and standing, they were able to quickly recover from this crisis and individually, most of the ASEAN countries are now enjoying positive growth rates of 4%-7%. It has shown the robustness of the economy despite the fall. This economic standing, with its political and strategic weight, has encouraged the ASEAN to explore an enhance geo-political role for itself in the Asia Pacific and the global community6.With this standing and development, no one state would want to be left behind and not play its role in pursuing and getting the fruits of the ever revolving flourishing economy. Even East Timor, the only nation in the region yet to amount of money ASEAN, has officially applied to be a member of the association in 4 March 2011, hoping to reap the fruit and to take advantage of the opportunity. tho as ASEAN members believe the meeting should focus on helping poorer nations which are already members of A sean like Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos to prepare for the opening of the groups free trade regulate in 2015 and that East Timor unable to meet some of the joining criteria, the grace has been put on hold. As can see, the economic interdependence among the nations is so strong and required that any inter-state conflicts is a near impossible, even in the next century. It has been decades and proven that the region has always been a very strong trading zone due to its vast natural resources. It is undeniable. There may be occasions where conflicts happen but those were resolved amicably archetype some disputes like the Spratly islands is still on the card involving Brunei, Malaysia, Philippines and Vietnams with China and Taiwan. through with(predicate) the years, the association, with its founding aim to promote peace and stability, has also developed tonality mechanisms for dispute settlement e.g the 1976 Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC), the 1996 communications protocolon Dispute Settlement Mechanismand subsequentlythe2004 Protocol for Enhanced Dispute Settlement Mechanism (EDSM) for disputes relating to ASEAN economic agreements, and the provisions of the 2007ASEAN remove that serve as an overarching framework for dispute settlement in ASEAN etc. All these and other agreement are meant to provide a maneuver for the members in settling disputes. As such, the likelihood of inter-state war in South East Asia is near impossible.TERRORISM THREAT IN THE S.E.A. REGIONterrorism poses a serious and real threat to the world and it knows no border, nationality and religion. It was believably taken for granted till the terrorist attack on the Twin Towers of United States in 11 September 2001. I was stationed in Peace Prairie fallback in Dallas, Texas and received a call from a colleague that morning. He mentionedSwitch on the TV. Two airplanes hit the tower I guess telling him to not joke as I was dead banal after having returned early in the morning fro m work. But after transposition on the TV and seeing what happened, I then realised the political theory is a clear danger. That day changes the world. Everyone is betrothaling against terrorism till straightaway sometime I feel it has become an excuse for some countries to excrete opposing factors in the country. In South East Asia, the terrorist attack on Bali on 12 October, 2002 was a wakeup call for Southeast Asian governments. It exhibit the severity of terrorism. The horrified act was done by a terrorist group Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) whose cell in Indonesia has been blooming with sufficient support from Al cornerstone to infringe further damage in the later years. Though Indonesia has done very well in its fight against the terror cells situated in its territory, especially its counter terrorism tactical force, Detachment 88 who has killed and captured close 800 Indonesian terrorists and extremists, JI itself has transformed into an ideological organization and several peeled splinter groups emerged. They include a dozen operational groups of Al al-Qaeda in Indonesia such as Lashkar Hisbah, Tawhid Wal Jihad and Jamaah Ansharut Tauhid (JAT)7. All these development have been a worrying trends and the need for all S.E.A. countries to work together to fight or guard against them cannot be over-emphasized. Fortunately, these threats have not caused any conflicts among the countries in the region and have been quite successfully been contained in respective country. The mark of 11 terrorists, whom are suspected of having links to terrorists in other countries, in Malaysia lately does show the needs for every country in the region to not let their guard down. The co-operation of the states also resulted in the arrest of a number of terrorist figures, quashing more terrorist cells. All these co-operation further enhanced the cohesiveness of the countries in the region and more openness and solidarity, it does help in the lessening the surmise of confli ct among states in the region.CONCLUSIONAmidst the peace and stability in the region, capital of Singapore continues to play its responsible and neutral role in fostering good relationship with the neighbouring countries and that, we have been doing an excellent job playing a good brothers keeper. Occasionally, we may have some little financial statement with the neighbouring states but with good foreign and open relation, we were able to overcome amicably. The need to continue to maintain a strong defence to deter potential aggression must be a continual emphasis not only for its peace and stability but also to continue to attract investment to the country to maintain a robust economy and indirectly, throw the regions development. I am confident to say that mishap of inter-state war in the next century is highly unlikely.BibliographyAseanweb Asean Motto. Asean.org. 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